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VIII. LOCAL LABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT

Total Area: 9,240 square miles
Total Population (est. 1999): 821,899
Estimated Kindergarten through 12th grade age population: 137,149
Number of Total Population Living in Poverty: 128,459

1999-2000 Poverty Level

A full-time wage earner that supports a family of four and earns less than $8.02 an hour lives below the poverty level.

Total Civilian Labor Force: 399,100
Number of Unemployed: 13,900
Number of Employed: 385,200

Housing Costs The "fair market rent" for housing in Pima County in 1994 was:

This cost includes utilities. The cost per working hour shows how much of a full time worker's pay goes to pay for that housing. Necessary income shows how much the worker should earn so that housing does not exceed 30% of income.

III. A. Identify the Workforce Investment Needs of the businesses, job seekers, and workers in the local area.

The workforce system must meet the employment needs and anticipated needs of:

• high growth industries
• small businesses
• government, including education.

At the same time, the workforce system must meet the needs of:

• work-ready individuals who need minimal assistance
• incumbent workers who may need assistance to retain their jobs or advance up career ladders
• job seekers and youth who have few skills and/or little training and education.

The workforce system must coordinate its efforts with economic development activities, industry clusters, education and training institutions, and support systems such as day care providers, transportation systems, and human service providers.

In the summer of 1999, with the business cycle at its peak, many local employers could not find the workers they need. Some of these employers seek workers with specialized skill sets. Others want workers with basic skills and a good work ethic. Despite the strong demand for workers there are 10,000-15,000 unemployed persons in the County.

This discrepancy between employer needs and many unemployed persons indicates a mismatch of skill sets. Some unemployed persons have obsolete skills, some do not understand employer expectations of work ethic skills, and some are youth or welfare recipients that have never worked.

When the business cycle is at its peak, employed workers must obtain new skills, while helping the long-term unemployed into entry-level jobs. When the business cycle weakens, we can shift more resources to upgrading the skills of persons who recently became unemployed, while lengthening the amount of time and increasing the amount of resource invested in the long term unemployed.

Business Needs

With unemployment at less than 3%, businesses need qualified workers. Much of what businesses say they need was summarized in the SCANS report.

Businesses need people who:

• Can read, write, and perform simple arithmetic functions
• Have a good work ethic
• Can communicate
• Follow instructions
• Can work well with others and on teams.

The City of Tucson's Office of Economic Development conducted a survey of 254 business in the spring of 1999. Findings reinforce the SCANS report. The Plan Committee of the Workforce Investment Board is interested in reviewing local business surveys such as the one conducted by the City. The Committee is also interested in comparing the needs of small business versus large businesses, and striving to meet the workforce needs of both.

Job Seeker Needs

Job seekers need places to obtain information (we have a One-Stop System rather than a single One-Stop Center to make access easier for people), and many of our current job seekers need assistance in removing serious barriers to employment. These barriers include:

1. Lack of basic skills
2. Poor work ethics
3. Substance abuse problems
4. Attempts to avoid child support payments by working in the underground economy (with its lack of worker compensation and social security support)
5. Legal problems
6. Child Care issues
7. Health care needs
8. Transportation problems

Worker Needs

Workers have some of the same needs as job seekers, but also need to have the means to

• Keep up with technological changes
• Improve their chances of advancing on a career ladder, or
• Climbing onto a ladder that has better opportunities than the one they are currently on.

III. B. Identify the current and projected employment opportunities in the local area and data source(s) used.

The Workforce Investment Board has established a Demand Occupation Subcommittee. This subcommittee answers to the Planning Committee, which also overcomes the ITA subcommittee.

The Demand Occupation Subcommittee intends to review labor market information quarterly in order to maintain a dynamic list of demand occupations. This will allow the County's WIB to offer training in emerging occupations and be responsive to employer defined skill gaps.

The Planning Committee of the Workforce Investment Board has decided to include trades, particularly apprenticeable trades in the final plan.

Does not include helpers
From DES Research Administration

Top 75 Largest Occupations 2006 Tucson Metropolitan Area
(Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. Adobe's Free Download)

In addition to the Systems Analysts, Information Clerks, and Technology Technicians in the preceding chart there are a number of emerging occupations in the Information Technology and Computer industry that the WIB considers to be in demand. These include but are not limited to Microsoft Certified Systems Engineers, Webmasters, programmers in various computer languages, Novell, NT and other network technicians, computer support staff and related information technology support staff.

Additionally, occupations in emerging cluster industries described in B.2. below are considered by the local WIB to be demand occupations. Finally, the WIB may designate certain occupations in demand for the purposes of On the Job Training or Customized Training.

III. B. 1. First, frame your discussion around Sector Employment Opportunities in your local area.

Distribution of Employment In Selected Industries in Pima County (from DES):
August, 1999 vs. August, 1998

Please note: the above table is based on numbers of employees reported on where they work. A table below is based on census data reports on where employees work who live in Pima county.

Research conducted by the Department of Economic Security's Research Administration (DESRA) determined that there is a strong correlation between economic prospects in Pima County and monetary policy followed by the Federal Reserve Board. Low inflation and low interest rates lead to job creation in Pima County, although the County's wages are lower than wages for comparable occupations in Phoenix. Low interest rates have the most direct impact on construction employment, and in 1999 one out of 16 paychecks in Pima County is issued by the construction industry.

Service industries in Pima County experienced explosive growth during the past few years. Business services such as accounting, legal, maintenance, equipment repair, rental services, and temporary employment agencies expand rapidly. Hotel and resort operators continue to enjoy strong growth, enhancing the ability of Tucson to attract a larger share of the tourist and convention business. Many opportunities exist for service employment such as cooks, housekeepers, maintenance workers, desk clerks, and landscapers.

The table below shows which industries people have worked in during the past 30 years. This table is based on 1990 Census data.

Distribution of Employment In Selected Industries in Pima County
(Census Data): 1970-1990

*Information not available.

In Pima County, almost one out of five paychecks are issued by the retail industry. While retail sales offers many employment opportunities, the pay scale is about 60% of that in other parts of the economy. Retail sales are usually among the first casualties of a weakening economy. In Pima County, the retail sector is also vulnerable to cyclical weakness in Mexico. Pima County's proximity to the Mexican border ties its economic fortunes to Mexico in other ways as well.

Mexico and NAFTA represent opportunity for the transportation and manufacturing industries. Maquiladoras (or twin plants) should strengthen employment in these areas over the long term, particularly in wholesale trade, warehousing, and transportation.

Today only about one out of 11 paychecks is in manufacturing. Our County has not recovered from the corporate consolidation that followed the mid-1980s, when almost one out of eight workers were in manufacturing. Despite the potential impact of NAFTA on transportation and despite a constant demand for truck drivers, transportation employment is a small sector (2%) and does not register rapid growth.

As mentioned earlier, average wages for most industry sectors in Pima County are below those in Maricopa County. The highest wages are in manufacturing and mining (which account for 10% of employment) while the lowest wages are in retail and services (50% of employment).

Distribution of Employment in Pima County by Occupational Category
(Census Data): 1980--1990

B. 2. Second, identify which of Arizona's 11 GSPED Industry Clusters exist in your area and support employment opportunities.

In 1991, the Governor's Strategic Partnership for Economic Development (GSPED) identified 11 statewide industry "clusters" as having the potential for growth. Two years later, in 1993, the Greater Tucson Economic Council localized the GSPED process to develop employment-growth industry clusters for Tucson and Pima County, where it now provides support for the clusters. The county's initial five clusters were optics, environmental technology, aerospace/defense, software, and bioindustry. The Teleservices cluster was added in 1994 and the Plastics cluster was added in 1997.

The Information Technology Association of Southern Arizona (ITASA) is a non-profit professional organization based in Tucson whose mission is to promote the growth of the information technology (IT) industry in Southern Arizona. Its predecessor organization was the Center for Software Excellence (CSE) which was designated the software cluster for the City of Tucson and Southern Arizona by GTEC in January 1994.

Broadly defined, IT encompasses computers, software, Internet and online services, Web design and development, e-commerce, telecommunications products and services, systems integration and professional services. Nationally, IT has recently joined automotive manufacturing, construction and food products as one of the US's largest industries. Its annual revenues are approximately $800 million and comprise about 8% of the US economy. IT has been growing at a 10 to 20% annual rate for the past ten years, accounting for much of our economic growth over this period. At the present time, there are approximately 300,000 unfilled IT positions in the US.

Statewide, Arizona employs 100,000 IT workers in 4,000 companies. Locally, Pima County accounts for 18% of Arizona's IT activity. This translates into 18,000 IT jobs in 700 companies. Annual revenues are estimated in excess of $1.0 billion. The average private sector IT/software salary in Southern Arizona is $39,000 as opposed to the average private sector salary of $27,000. IT jobs are considered to be nonpolluting or environmentally sensitive in nature.

The largest IT companies in Southern Arizona and their number of employees' follows:

IBM Storage Technology Division = 1,200
Sunquest Information Systems, Inc. = 675
Keane, Inc. = 525
Intuit, Inc. = 500
America Online = 485

Over the past year, IT has become one of the most active of the GTSPED clusters, having more than doubled its membership from 100 to more than 200 companies/organizations. ITASA has implemented advocacy, capital formation, workforce development, telecommunications infrastructure build-out and image enhancement efforts, strengthened its working relationship with GTEC and other local economic clusters/business organizations and hired an executive director.

In the final analysis, IT cluster growth in greater Tucson not only seems to be mirroring national and statewide trends, but it's allowing IT to become a significant portion of the local economy here. Moreover, it's providing us with environmentally sensitive jobs that pay on average up to 50% higher than the average private-sector salary in greater Tucson.

One of the first clusters started in our area was the Optics Cluster. Newsweek called Tucson the "Optics Valley." The clear desert sky led to the development of astronomy observatories such as Kitt Peak. These in turn helped foster development of the University of Arizona's Optical Sciences Center. The center is headquarters for two industrial consortia - the National Optical Data Storage Center and the Optical Circuitry Cooperative.

Optics Valley businesses fill a number of important niches. In addition to the manufacture and repair of telescopes, these businesses are involved in lasers and fiberoptics. There are 84 optics-related companies employing 2,000 people in Tucson. Occupations range from lens grinders and assemblers to engineers and research scientists.

The Environmental Technology cluster benefits from the region's traditional mining industry and the area's proximity to Mexico. Environmental businesses may be involved in cleanups (Tucson has a designated superfund area), prevention and monitoring activities. The University of Arizona has established environmental curricula in a number of disciplines and Pima Community College is home to the Arizona State Environmental Technology Training Center (ASETT), one of 39 training sites approved by the federal Environmental Protection Agency.

The environmental field is creating a number of opportunities, many of which are not easily separated from other occupations. Examples include a growing demand for water, soil and air testers. Other workers are needed to build, maintain and repair scrubbers on utilities and smelter smokestacks. Currently 95 environmental related companies employ 1,800 people in Tucson.

The Aerospace Cluster's employment represents over 20,000 jobs in Tucson in firms such as Raytheon Missile Systems, Bombardier Learjet, Allied Signal, and Universal Avionics. These firms produce missiles, perform maintenance and install interiors for business jet aircraft, and manufacture electronic components for aerospace. Davis Monthan Air Force Base (DMAFB) has been a part of Tucson's aviation history. Located on 18,000 acres, DMAFB employs nearly 6,000 military and 1,700 civilian personnel. The 355th Wing is the base's primary activity and occupant, responsible for training pilots on the A-10 Thunderbolt. The 355th also conducts training for other aircrews, provides airborne command and communications. Davis Monthan AFB also houses the 12th Air Force Command, with about 600 people assigned to it, which is responsible for the combat readiness of all tactical air forces west of the Mississippi. The base is also the site of an Air National Guard unit that flies the F-16 "Fighting Falcon".

The Teleservices Cluster was formed to bring together an industry that employs over 16,000 workers. The core of the cluster is composed of firms that primarily handle inbound phone calls. Almost 30 firms make up a cluster that conducts business in areas such as travel reservations, technical support, and operator assistance. Workforce development programs, childcare, education cooperatives and image are key.

BioIndustry Cluster companies are engaged in product development and manufacturing, focusing upon biomedical devices, pharmaceuticals, industrial products/services, product testing, environmental products/services, products for tests/assays, computer software and imaging. Key markets include medical, government and environmental sectors.

The Plastics cluster has 32 companies and 1,483 employees. Occupations range from plastic injection, manufacture of molds, tolls and ties, related research, and manufacturing with other composite materials. Several companies have 120-150 employees, other have 1-25 employees.

III. C. Describe the Job Skills necessary to obtain employment opportunities identified above.

The trend in recent years has been away from less skilled jobs to jobs that require more education and training. Even jobs that did not require the use of computers in the past now require some familiarity with and use of computers. Workers entering or reentering the workforce find that the best paying jobs often demand education and technical training. In addition, the movement towards worker "empowerment" at many firms emphasizes the need for employees with a good work ethic, as well as good communication skills and team player attitudes. Finally, the internet has impacted the way job applications and employers are matched.

Education
The local workforce has become more educated over the years, as the following chart shows.

The Educational Attainment of Pima County Adults over the age of 24:
1970-1990

From Census Data

The Educational Testing Service (ETS) conducted a survey of literacy skills of 26,000 adults, age 16 to 64. The first in a series of reports from this survey was released in September of 1993. This report, titled Adult Literacy in America, describes adult literacy at five levels in terms of the types of literacy skills needed to use various kinds of printed and written information. Some findings from this study indicate that:

• 21 to 23 percent (40 to 44 million) of American adults demonstrated skills in the lowest of the five survey assessment levels
• 90 million American adults scored in the two lowest levels. Only 34 - 40 million adults performed in the two highest levels
• Older adults are more likely than middle-aged or younger adults to demonstrate limited literacy skills
• Participants aged 21 to 25 had average scores that were lower than the scores of 21 to 25 year olds assessed in the 1985 NAEP Study
• Nearly half of all adults in the lowest level on each literacy scale were living in poverty.

Skills
In order to help a person obtain a self-sufficient wage, the LWIB needs to focus on occupational training opportunities that are within the participant's reach and that are on a good career path.

Two upfront factors help participants decide on a potential career path-information and assessment. While both of these factors are discussed more fully elsewhere in this plan, both are designed to help both the system and the consumer make the right choice.

The need for a working knowledge of computers and information systems is effecting workers in many industries and occupations. Even persons who have strong technical skills need to update these skills on a periodic basis. Entry level workers often need a basic understanding of several types of end user computer software.

Customer service skills have become an increasingly important part of many types of skill training. For example, a consumer might purchase an article via an internet. That article is then delivered to their door by a person who has been trained by a Commercial Driver's License program.

Flexibility has also become very important. For example, carpenters who previously framed houses with wood may be asked to use steel for framing.

Workers also need to able to transfer existing skills to new industries such as internet businesses, optics and bio-tech firms. As they transfer existing skills they need to add industry specific skills.

Soft skills
Technology has also changed the way employers seek employees. Today's job applicant may sit at home or visit the One Stop Center and use a computer to find the job, then E-mail the application to the employer. This may be followed up with a teleconference interview.

Some employers scan resumes into a database, so applicants have to prepare their resumes in a different format than in the past.